THE NETHERLANDS, Utrecht. In its global animal protein outlook 2023, Rabobank’s Research Food & Agribusiness department helps the sectors to decide how to grow amid challenges and opportunities.
Even though global animal protein production is expected to grow modestly in 2023, it will be another year of change for the sector. The industry will face high costs along the full supply chain, swings in consumption, and other areas of uncertainty for producers, such as elevated disease pressure and regulatory and market-driven changes. As a result, margins will be squeezed as buyers push back on higher production costs. But opportunities still exist, although they will be more restricted.
Rabobank experts see growth favoring value-for-money products, efficient producers and processors, agile companies, exporters advantaged by FX movements, and biosecure producers. “Some animal protein companies will see 2023 as a year to recalibrate their growth expectations and plans,” says Justin Sherrard, Global Strategist – Animal Protein. “Some companies will maintain a near-term focus and strengthen agility so they can roll with the cyclical changes. Other animal protein companies will focus on longer-term growth and start investing and positioning for success given the structural changes ahead.”
The overall trend for 2023 is for production growth to slow further, with small gains in some regions but contraction in others for the main terrestrial species. Slow growth is expected in China across all species groups, and ongoing growth is expected in Brazil and Southeast Asia. Oceania will experience slow growth, while North American and European production will contract.
Aquaculture leads global growth across the species groups, once again, and its continuing expansion is supported by its relative independence from agri commodity prices. Poultry is set to maintain its consistent growth pattern, wild catch is set to expand slightly, beef production will decline slightly, and pork will see a decline. Some key points from the outlook for animal protein in 2023: