Pork trade: Global market shrinks in 2021
Pork trade

Global market shrinks in 2021

Imago / VCG
China's rising production is causing lower demand on the world market.
China's rising production is causing lower demand on the world market.

USA, Washington. Production and consumption of pork is rising, especially in China. In the EU and the U.S., falling production is affecting exports.

Global pork production and consumption are expected to increase moderately in 2022 compared with the previous year, but the volume traded internationally will decrease significantly in the process. In summary, this is the current forecast of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the world pork market. According to the analysts from Washington, the events in China, the dominant market player, are decisive for this development. There, due to the increased pig stocks, pork production is expected to grow by 3.5 million tons or around 7% to 51.0 million tons compared to 2021, while imports, which are less needed as a result, are expected to fall by 830,000 tons or 19% to 3.5 million tons.

In addition, USDA expects imports of pork to decline again in the Philippines and Vietnam, two countries also affected by African swine fever (ASF), because self-supply is increasing again there and the reduction in import duties is expiring in the Philippines. Higher import demand, on the other hand, is seen in Japan, Mexico, the United Kingdom and South Korea, but this is not expected to offset China's shortfall. The bottom line for the countries considered by USDA is a total import decline of 645,000 tons, or 5.5%, to just under 11 million metric tons of pork compared to 2021.

Accordingly, global pork exports are also expected to weaken compared to 2021. According to the USDA, this is also due to the fact that pork production will fall among the main exporters as a result of declining livestock numbers and high production costs. For the European Union, Washington analysts forecast a 2.4 % decline in volume to 23.2 million tons, resulting in a 4.7% drop in exports to 4.75 million tons. In the US itself, production is expected to decline 2.2% to just under 12.3 million t; pork exports are expected to drop as much as 6.2% to about 3 million t. Compared with previous boom years, Brazil is expected to see only very modest growth in production and exports of around 1 % each.

Source: fleischwirtschaft.de; AgE


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