BELGIUM, Brussels. The high production costs and the ASP ensure that the trend of the past years continues. Spain remains a special case.
In its spring forecast on the pig market for the Community, the EU Commission came to similar conclusions as the USDA. According to the Brussels-based analysts, the 2021 destocking and the currently very high production costs will cause the production of pork in the 27 member states to fall by around 700,000 t, or 3%, to 22.9 million t in the current year compared to 2021. Especially in countries with African swine fever (ASF), including Germany, Poland and Romania, the drop in production is likely to be more significant, according to the estimate. Production is forecast to remain stable in Denmark and increase by 3% in Spain. It is also expected that due to high feed costs, animals will be delivered to slaughterhouses earlier and more easily.
Exports of EU pork are expected to weaken further after 2021, falling by just over 100,000 t, or just over 2%, to 4.64 million t. In addition to China, fewer goods are also expected to be shipped to Ukraine and Belarus due to the war. Exports to the UK, on the other hand, are expected to have bottomed out and pick up again in 2022 after logistics problems are resolved. In terms of consumption, the Commission expects a continuation of the negative trend and a decline of around three %; per capita consumption is expected to fall by 1.1 kg compared to 2021 to an average of 32 kg. Overall, the Commission sees the EU pig market tending to shrink slightly more than the USDA in 2022; comparison of absolute figures is limited due to statistical discrepancies, such as the inclusion of offal.
Source: fleischwirtschaft.de; AgE