Rabobank Strong industry performance with a shake-up in global trade

“Global poultry trade has reached record-high levels, but trade streams have shifted,” according to RaboResearch Senior Animal Protein Analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder. “The US and, to a lesser extent, Thailand have been the winners in this trade shake-up, due to AI-related restrictions and the impacts of the ‘meat scandal’ in Brazil.”

Human AI cases in China are still spreading and impacting the market, although prices have recently recovered somewhat. A concern is the further spread of the virus in China, with recent movements to northern regions. Chinese local authorities have closed many live bird markets, and this has had a particularly big impact on the yellow-bird market. Imports are relatively unaffected, as they serve the processed meat market.

The Brazilian ‘meat scandal’ is having a significant impact on global trade. Exports from Brazil have been dropping since March (April: -23%), and this has created an additional shift in global trade streams, on top of the AI-related impact. The US has been the winner, with European exporters also taking some of the Middle East trade.

Most global markets are performing well, with a combination of strong demand, restricted supply, and ongoing low feed costs. Industries in Mexico, India, Thailand, and Japan are performing particularly well, while South Africa and the EU are on the road to recovery.

Global meat trade is highly volatile, but reached a record-high Q1 level of 3m tonnes. Aside from the changes in raw trade driven by AI, along with the meat scandal, a potentially big—but still uncertain—development could be the entry of Chinese cooked chicken into the US market.