Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q3 2017 published
This potential softening bias on prices contrasts with the stability of the Rabobank Five-Nation Hog Price Index thus far in 2017. In the first five months of 2017, China’s pork imports were flat, which contrasts with the significant growth seen in 1H 2016. The recovery of local production and strong international prices is believed to be responsible for slower imports. In China, pork prices have declined by 30%, from the record levels of last year. As a result, Chinese traders are taking a more cautious approach to imports in 2017.
Rabobank holds the view that China’s pork production will increase by about 2% in 2017. Hog production recovery was faster than expected in 1H, as many producers shared a positive view of the market and made rapid herd replenishments. While the expansion of hog production should continue in 2H 2017, it has been slowed by the price plunge in Q2.
"The emergence of these new trade dynamics will be the most important market development in the second half of this year," according to Justin Sherrard, RaboResearch Global Strategist – Animal Protein.
Other highlights from the Pork Quarterly Q3 2017 include: