Rabobank Animal protein growth slows down
Uncertainty created by African swine fever (ASF), in trade, and with feed prices all contribute to the slowdown in production. However, global animal protein also has opportunities in 2019, according to the recently released RaboResearch report “Global Animal Protein Outlook 2019 – Growth Slows Down… as Doubts Gear Up”.
Growth in global animal protein production is expected to slow as we move through 2019, given some obvious areas of uncertainty in trade, biosecurity and the weather. These uncertainties could though swing both towards weaker or strong constraints on production during 2019.
The fundamentals remain supportive of ongoing growth in animal protein. The economic outlook is positive for most of the world, and consumer confidence remains firm.
To help ensure a successful year ahead, the animal protein supply chain needs to look through the uncertainties. Boosting competitiveness in trade will benefit from strong relationships and reasonable pricing, as well as enhanced biosecurity. Boosting competitiveness in domestic markets will benefit from innovative approaches to production and processing that boost value-adding.
These are the key points for the main global animal-protein producing regions:
Rabobank expects strong growth in production, with increases across all species, led by pork. Exports will increase too, while small, total growth in beef exports will lead export growth.
Poultry production is growing, but pork and beef are stable. European exports will grow, and biosecurity will become even more important.
Biosecurity is the top issue for the Chinese animal protein sector, and pork production is down materially as a result. Imports are expected to rise.
Production is growing across all species of the Brazilian animal protein complex. Local economic conditions influence local demand and could go either way. Exports are expected to increase.
Poultry leads modest production growth in South-East Asia. Cost pressures are rising, challenging local production and imports.
Australia and New Zealand
Beef and sheepmeat production in Australia and New Zealand will decline. Limited supplies will maintain strong livestock prices, and seasonal conditions dictate growth possibilities.