FAO and OECD Agricultural Outlook 2009 – 2018

by Editor fleischwirtschaft.com
Friday, August 14, 2009

Because food is a basic necessity, the agriculture sector is showing more resilience to the global economic crisis than other industries. But, the risks could increase if the economic downturn deepens according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009.

Falls in agricultural prices and in the production and consumption of farm goods are likely to be moderate as long as the economic recovery begins within two to three years, says the report.

After the turning point is reached in the economic downturn, the remainder of the meat outlook is characterised by moderate increases in production and consumption in developing countries and a more stable path of development in the mature OECD markets. Overall global production growth - a little under 2% per year - is expected to be registered and this will be at a slower pace than witnessed in the past 10 years.

Meat prices in real terms are not expected to surpass the 1997-2006 average, while reduced consumer incomes in the beginning of the projection period will tend to encourage substitution to cheaper meats, favouring poultry over beef.