German market analyst ZMP announces that all the bans related to outbreaks of avian flu, Foot & Mouth disease and BSE have a significant effect on world meat markets.
Especially, price forecasts are being made very difficult.
Avian flu outbreaks between end of 2005 and May 2006 led to a quick drop of consumer confidence in poultry meat resulting in a remarkable decrease in trade and production. While poultry meat production worldwide had been rising steadily by 3 to 4% annually over the last couple of years the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) predicts a drop of around 1% in 2006.
Export prices, which have fallen by 20 to 50% have made sales more difficult and have led to burgeoning stocks.
However, the recent drops in poultry meat production and sales have been balanced by an increase in sales of pork and beef. Pork sales now make up 39% of world meat sales, ahead of poultry meat with 30% share and beef with 24%.
World pigmeat production is forecast to rise by around 3% in 2006. China, which produces around half of the world’s pork, will see production and demand rising by 5 to 6%.
The overall exports of pork are being expected to slow down. While US and Europe will increase trade by 9% and 5% respectively, Brazil is likely to report a drop of around 18%, mainly due to the Foot & Mouth disease related bans imposed by Russia. Strict veterinary regulations and high import taxes are somewhat limiting free-trade in Asia.
Worldwide beef production and consumption are forecast to rise by 3% and 2% respectively, having in mind that this trend is varied from region to region. While in Europe beef production will fall due to the decoupling of subsidy payments, production in US, South America, China and Australia will rise. Noticable increases will be reported in the US with 5%, Brazil with 3% and China with 6%.
Source: Livestock and Meat