UNITED KINGDOM, London. According to UNCTAD, the United Kingdom is threatened with serious losses in exports to the EU if a hard brexite occurs. Foreign trade in meat and dairy products is one of the biggest losers.
While there is a kind of showdown between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Parliament in London's government district, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) publishes figures that are quite impressive. If the British are unable to conclude agreements with EU trading partners on tariff relief in the event of an unregulated Brexits, the UK alone would face export losses of at least €14.6 bn. € in the EU alone. According to the UNCTAD study this is a “conservative estimate”: losses caused by non-tariff trade barriers, border controls and associated delivery delays and the disruption of existing production networks are not included in the figure.
Meat and dairy markets severely affected
In the worst case scenario, the EU agricultural sector would also be threatened with heavy losses: the UK imports pork worth almost GBP 3 bn. from the EU - the main suppliers being Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany. The British are also among the most important importers of cheese within the EU internal market for the rest of the EU - and Germany is an important supplier. Representatives of the German dairy industry fear that significantly higher prices for the products within the framework of the so-called WTO scenario would probably slow down trade. In the grain trade with the United Kingdom and Germany, malting barley and quality wheat play a greater, albeit not a major, role.