AgraFNP trumps government over cattle census forecast

by Editor
Friday, January 04, 2008

AgraFNP has proved to be more reliable than the Brazilian government in its assessment of the Brazilian cattle herd.

Despite its status as the world's leading exporter of beef, there has been considerable confusion over the size of Brazil's cattle herd, with estimates of the number of cattle varying wildly.

But it was finally resolved by a livestock census conducted by IBGE, the government's institute of statistics, which was published on December 21.

Since May 2007 Agribusiness consultancy AgraFNP maintained a forecast of 159 million head compared to IBGE's original estimate, prior to the census results, of around 205 million head. In the event, the latest IBGE census put the total bovine cattle population in Brazil at 169.9 million head, which is only 6% more than AgraFNP's forecast but 17% below IBGE's own pre-census figure.

AgraFNP's forecasting success is already well known in the livestock industry. At the time of the previous 1995/96 livestock census the AgraFNP forecast was within 1.7% of the final Census figure, but IBGE's own projection was out by 5.3%.

AgraFNP, a division of Agra Informa Ltd., is the leading information specialist focusing on agribusiness and food markets in Brazil. Founded in 1990, AgraFNP's team of analysts and market experts produce a range of reports, studies and consultancy services for clients worldwide, and is publisher of Brazilian Meat Monitor.